Monday, 3 January 2011

So you want to get rid of technology and go back to nature? (Part 1)

Lets start with Electricity

If we lost all ability to generate Electricity tomorrow this is what would likely happen

Day 1:

All computers, TVs, cars, home electronics, breaker box, phones, radios, cell phones and any other electronic device that does not run on batteries would be dead. It also means hospitals, nursing homes, etc. would no longer be able to monitor or regulate patients via machine and millions would die within minutes all over the world.

All of the farms and their harvesting equipment is dead. The trucks that move food to the cities would no longer start. The trains that move freight around would be inoperable, All shipping would cease and all ships not in port would be lost at sea as there would be no radar.

Every airplane flying crashes. All planes on the down are ruined. The earth would be in complete darkness except for candle light where available, all Freezers, Fridges, Electric Cookers, Air Coolers etc would cease to work along with all other electrical appliances.

Day 2:

With power out people’s fridges are DOA. With no working cars, people don’t go to work. In the country and in the suburbs, people take the food out of their refrigerators and freezers before it “goes bad” and have BBQs. It’s a fun time.

People are mostly only able to make it to a local town, many would be stranded. Many people die of heat stroke on their journeys. There are a number of deaths due to the heat since air conditioning is out.

In the cities, looting begins quite quickly. The police can’t do much since they’re on foot or on horse.

We know this sort of thing because we have seen what happens during extended power outages. Of course, in those cases cars, cell phones, and other crucial devices still worked but there was still massive looting in the large cities.

Day 3:

Local agencies really don’t know what’s going on since there is no communication. No cell phones. No radio. No land lines. The grid is gone.

International relief globally grinds to a halt.

In the subs, the party is over. It ain’t funny now. People are finishing off what was in their refrigerator. Most people still have some food in the cupboard.

Stores start rationing their supplies. People are still using money (at least, those who keep cash). A bottle of water is now $20. How much cash do you keep in your house?

In the cities, riots have broken out with widespread destruction. Fires from the riots start to spread.

End of Week 1:

By now, most people in the subs have run out of food they would normally remotely consider eating. Looting at the local supermarket and grocery stores begins as people simply take what they need.

Remember, people aren’t hearing anything from the authorities. There are no working TVs. No working radios. The handful of police are walking in the subs.

If you live in the suburbs, take a close look around. How would the police reasonably patrol your city without cars?

Meanwhile, people in nursing homes have started dying en-masse. Without refrigeration drugs quickly go bad. Anyone requiring help breathing or anything else has already died.

People with type 1 diabetes are starting to see the writing on the wall.

Unfortunately most cities are in utter pandemonium. Tens of thousands have already died from heat exhaustion. In 2003, when there was a heat wave in France, 14800 people died. They didn’t lose power, they just didn’t have air conditioning. The global death toll is sky-rocketing quickly.

End of Week 2:

People are starting to die of dysentery from eating bad food, drinking bad water. Many have left the suburbs to head to rural areas where they think there is food (they’re wrong, harvest won’t happen for months, industrialized food processing involves a lot of transportation between the farms and the slaughter houses).

The typical family, now out of food and with no access to clean water is starting to get pretty desperate.

What? Only 2 weeks? How much food do you have in your house right now? Go check. I’ll wait….

Okay back? So how much is in your pantry? How long would it last you? If you knew at the start, you might have rationed it better. But you didn’t.

Millions of people are wishing they had put those steaks and hamburgers and hot-dogs in their basements in the cooler temperatures. Others are wishing they had salted them heavily and cooked them well done to store for the long haul.

Meanwhile, armed thugs are starting to systematically go through every building and house looking and taking what they need.

End of Week 3

Starvation is starting to become a real problem. If your local law enforcement had a clue, they had already gotten themselves and helpful citizens around to the stores to gather up supplies to start rationing it.

At this point, martial law has been declared by any competent city government. Some cities decide that, for the public good of course, that all community food will be collected and distributed equally to everyone. In other places, large armed mobs are violently taking what is needed to survive.

Are you a survivalist? Got all your supplies right? Got MREs in the basement. You have an AK47 that you managed to get quietly at a gun show. Your kids know how to use the two shot guns. You’ve been prepared for this day right?

You see, you might be able to keep a few people away. But word got around that you have supplies. You might be able to take out a few people but 200+ Nope. You’re going to take a lot of them out but they’re going to come in, kill you, your family, and your supplies.

What? Don’t agree? People won’t do that? Again: Other than on the coast (in some major cities near harbors anyway) you’ve heard and seen nothing from the government. No TV. No phones. No radios.

A few people have managed to dig up old HAM radios and they are getting distant broadcasts of reassurance but it’s clear that nothing’s coming any time soon if you live significantly inland, especially if you don’t live in a densely populated area.

It’s triage at this point and the rural and suburbs areas are simply too spread out. Unfortunately, in the cities, fires have consumed much of them. Anyone strong enough to get out of there has which further distributes the population.

End of the first month:

A network of outposts are re-established in most large and medium sized cities. Medium sized cities are faring a bit better.

Really large cities away from the coast are dead at this point.

The Second Month:

Now is when the death toll really starts to go up. First, you have about 5% of the population that was on medication to control their mental states. This is now gone. They will mostly die off this month or take out a few others in the process.

Nearly everyone with Type 1 diabetes has died.

Virtually all who requires assisted care at this point has died.

Millions of children under 2 have died. Why? Do you have any children? If you’re not nursing them, how are you feeding them at this point?

There are not many domesticated dogs left that haven’t been freed by owners.

The number of deer left that are near people has diminished to the point of being difficult to find. Same with geese, ground hogs, rabbits, etc.

Most cities of any decent size now have an outpost re-established. However, it’s starting to become a real problem because, well it turns out that the US and Canada supply a significant chunk of the world’s food. 47% of the world’s Soy beans are produced in the United States. 86% of the world’s corn. The bulk of the world’s wheat.

The US and Canada make up 20% of the world’s food exports and if you count only basic foods the percentage nearly doubles. And now without a way to transport these goods around the world the suffering really begins.

It’s at about this time that those who were celebrating in the streets about the downfall of the great satan are starting to get the first thought that yes, they’re going to die too. North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Egypt, Syria, Pakistan, and many other countries are about to see starvation on a level that has never been seen before.

In Japan, where starvation is a serious concern, they and Korea have enough money to pay top dollar for the dwindling food supply. Russia, unfortunately, is about to have a very rough year.

Third Month:

8% of the population that was over 70. Nearly all of them have died.

3% of the population that is under 4. Nearly all of them have died.

Urban populations have had staggering death tolls, particularly those not near the coasts.

Anyone requiring medication that needed to be refrigerated in order to live (anti-rejection drugs, insulin, various heart medications, for instance) has died. Easily 10% of the population on top of the above.

Around 20% of the population has starved.

Another 10% are living in places that were uninhabitable without modern technology have died. Think the western world is nice? Imagine it without water. Any water at all... No Water treatment plants, no sewage treatment plants to take away your waste water or soiled water and no pumps to pump fresh drinking water to your taps.

While heat has killed millions in hotter countries, many millions are dying from the extreme cold in others.

The fourth month

Ever wondered how natural gas gets to your house? That's right... Electric pumps... no Electricity.. no gas supply!

If you live in extreme northern countries at this point, and you haven’t starved to death, you’re probably going to start dying of exposure.

But that’s a gift compared to what people still struggling to make it in warmer areas as we get reintroduced to cholera, TB, and diarrhea become major problems.

In fact, in 1900 the #1 cause of death in the United States was pneumonia. The #3 was diarrhea. That’s right. The runs killed more people than Heart disease, cancer, strokes, etc. And this November, it returns from retirement as people, without proper sanitation, start to die off from all kinds of things that were previously unheard of.

In fact, as November closes, western civilizations have reverted to third world conditions. No, that’s not fair. Third world countries usually have electricity and their inhabitants usually know how to start a fire. Do you know how to start a fire without matches and such? Remember watching Survivor and laughing at them? They were in pretty good conditions to get a fire going. You, by contrast, are wet, cold, weakened, and not sure if it’s even a good idea to start a fire because, well, what are you going to do with it? There’s little food.

One Year later

So what’s the death toll? Conservatively, you’re looking at 80% of the population of the world has died. That’s probably a best case scenario.

How many people know how to can food? How many modern civilians know how much wood to cut to burn? How many of you live in places where they need an elevator, as a practical matter, to get to where they live?

Heck, how many people are simply living today because they have access to all kinds of medical technology? How many people are living in places that can only be inhabited thanks to modern technology?

Also, consider our immune systems of today versus what it was 100 years ago. Our sterilized world has made us very vulnerable to the bacteria and viruses that lurk just outside our electrified civilization. And they would be back to visit within weeks.

Still think life without electricity and going back to nature is such a good idea?

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